Nonparametric sequential detection

This dissertation extends the theory of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney U statistic so that this statistic can be used to perform sequential tests on hypotheses. This sequential test procedure makes use of a sequential ranking procedure similar to the one first introduced by Parent. The operating-characteristic function and average number of samples function for this new test are calculated as a function of the signal to noise ratio. The test is then shown to be efficient for several forms of alternatives with an efficiency of 95% against the Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for a constant signal in normal noise. Finally, the test procedure is modified so that it is capable of making measurements on the channel in order to adapt itself to changes in the channel characteristics. Simulation results are presented to show that this adaptive detector can operate with low probability of error --Abstract, page i

Design of a nonparametric detector for FM signals

The communication engineer has in the past treated the detection problem from a parametric point of view. That is, the signal has been assumed to be of a known deterministic form and the noise of a known statistical form. This approach has proved valuable in many cases, but it is subject to severe limitations, e.g., if either the noise or signal change form, a new detector must be designed. Because of these limitations there is a need to find a more general form of detector. This study looks at a specific statistic (the Cramér-von Mises statistic) and designs a detector to utilize this statistic. This detector is of the nonparametric class in that a complete knowledge of the signal and noise is not necessary for its operation. This nonparametric detector is then compared to the optimum detector for several specific cases. The Cramér-von Mises Detector, while requiring more samples than the optimum detector in each case, can efficiently detect Signals in an unlimited number of special cases, while the optimum detector can efficiently detect a signal only in the case for which it is designed --Abstract, page i

Sea ice motions in the Central Arctic pack ice as inferred from AVHRR imagery

Synoptic observations of ice motion in the Arctic Basin are currently limited to those acquired by drifting buoys and, more recently, radar data from ERS-1. Buoys are not uniformly distributed throughout the Arctic, and SAR coverage is currently limited regionally and temporally due to the data volume, swath width, processing requirements, and power needs of the SAR. Additional ice-motion observations that can map ice responses simultaneously over large portions of the Arctic on daily to weekly time intervals are thus needed to augment the SAR and buoys data and to provide an intermediate-scale measure of ice drift suitable for climatological analyses and ice modeling. Principal objectives of this project were to: (1) demonstrate whether sufficient ice features and ice motion existed within the consolidated ice pack to permit motion tracking using AVHRR imagery; (2) determine the limits imposed on AVHRR mapping by cloud cover; and (3) test the applicability of AVHRR-derived motions in studies of ice-atmosphere interactions. Each of these main objectives was addressed. We conclude that AVHRR data, particularly when blended with other available observations, provide a valuable data set for studying sea ice processes. In a follow-on project, we are now extending this work to cover larger areas and to address science questions in more detail

Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change

Repurposing Anti-Inflammasome NRTIs for Improving Insulin Sensitivity and Reducing Type 2 Diabetes Development

Innate immune signaling through the NLRP3 inflammasome is activated by multiple diabetes-related stressors, but whether targeting the inflammasome is beneficial for diabetes is still unclear. Nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI), drugs approved to treat HIV-1 and hepatitis B infections, also block inflammasome activation. Here, we show, by analyzing five health insurance databases, that the adjusted risk of incident diabetes is 33% lower in patients with NRTI exposure among 128,861 patients with HIV-1 or hepatitis B (adjusted hazard ratio for NRTI exposure, 0.673; 95% confidence interval, 0.638 to 0.710; P \u3c 0.0001; 95% prediction interval, 0.618 to 0.734). Meanwhile, an NRTI, lamivudine, improves insulin sensitivity and reduces inflammasome activation in diabetic and insulin resistance-induced human cells, as well as in mice fed with high-fat chow; mechanistically, inflammasome-activating short interspersed nuclear element (SINE) transcripts are elevated, whereas SINE-catabolizing DICER1 is reduced, in diabetic cells and mice. These data suggest the possibility of repurposing an approved class of drugs for prevention of diabetes

Age influences the effects of nicotine and monoamine oxidase inhibition on mood-related behaviors in rats

Epidemiological studies have demonstrated a comorbidity of smoking with depression and anxiety, particularly during adolescence. However, few animal studies have considered possible synergistic interactions between nicotine and other tobacco smoke constituents, such as monoamine oxidase (MAO) inhibitors, in the regulation of mood. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that nicotine combined with the irreversible MAO inhibitor, tranylcypromine, will differentially affect depression- and anxiety-related behaviors in adolescent and adult rats. Nicotine (0, 0.05, 0.2 mg/kg, s.c.) and tranylcypromine (3 mg/kg, i.p.) were tested separately, or together, on male rats aged postnatal days 30 and 68, in three mood-related behavioral tests: forced swim test (FST), elevated plus maze (EPM), and open field. Nicotine (0.2 mg/kg) in adults significantly decreased floating time in the FST and increased time spent in the open arm of the EPM, with no change in locomotor activity. Tranylcypromine pretreatment combined with nicotine (0.2 mg/kg) significantly increased locomotor activity and time spent in the center of the open field. Whereas nicotine alone had no significant effect on adolescents, it significantly increased locomotor activity and decreased floating time in the FST when combined with tranylcypromine pretreatment. There is an age-dependent effect of nicotine, alone and in combination with MAO inhibition, on mood-related behaviors. Whereas nicotine alone induces mood improvement in adults, it has no effect on adolescents. Nicotine combined with tranylcypromine has unique, age-dependent effects. Thus, experimental studies of smoking should consider both age and other tobacco constituents, such as MAO inhibitors, as critical factors

Observing the Evolution of the Universe

How did the universe evolve? The fine angular scale (l>1000) temperature and polarization anisotropies in the CMB are a Rosetta stone for understanding the evolution of the universe. Through detailed measurements one may address everything from the physics of the birth of the universe to the history of star formation and the process by which galaxies formed. One may in addition track the evolution of the dark energy and discover the net neutrino mass. We are at the dawn of a new era in which hundreds of square degrees of sky can be mapped with arcminute resolution and sensitivities measured in microKelvin. Acquiring these data requires the use of special purpose telescopes such as the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), located in Chile, and the South Pole Telescope (SPT). These new telescopes are outfitted with a new generation of custom mm-wave kilo-pixel arrays. Additional instruments are in the planning stages.Comment: Science White Paper submitted to the US Astro2010 Decadal Survey. Full list of 177 author available at http://cmbpol.uchicago.ed